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Posts tagged ‘NFL’

June 19th, 2012

The NFL with a Step Forward and UEFA (soccer) with a Step Back

by Jeeves

I find sports commissioners and sports organizing  bodies terribly interesting. I realize that sounds like an odd statement, but I really do mean it. There are not many organizations in the US or other democratic nations that can rule so unilaterally. Yes, the NFL and NBA, for example, are governed by a collective bargaining agreement, but outside of that, there are hardly any forms of checks and balances. Whatever the commissioner wants, generally happens. It’s with that in mind that we got to see two contrasting actions taken yesterday.

The first was done by the NFL and Roger Goodell. I have pilloried the Czar for how dictatorial his reign as commissioner has been. He’s doled out suspensions as he has seen fit, ignoring precedent or even consistency. Hell, he made a judgement on the Patriots’ spying scandal (I refuse to append -gate to every controversy) on evidence that only he saw; he then had said evidence destroyed. Somehow, that passed muster and no one seriously took Goodell to task.

It had appeared that the Saints’ bounty scandal was going to follow a similar form, but the NFL released its evidence, or at the least, a chunk of its evidence. I haven’t had a chance to pore through the documents yet, but that isn’t the important part to me. Goodell, like with the Patriots, meted out his punishment while everyone else was left in the dark. There were allusions and references to evidence, but there was never any evidence presented. Goodell finally took a step toward greater transparency which is a must for someone in that position of power within the NFL. There may be a furor over the content of the evidence, but at least now we all can get a better idea of what happened which will only allow for greater understanding.

——————————-

While Goodell and the NFL seemingly took a step forward, the world of soccer continues to be baffling to both those who like it and those who despise it. FIFA, the world governing body of soccer, is corrupt. There’s no two ways around it. It’s worse than when dead people in Chicago voted in elections. I’ll put it this way, the World Cup in 2022 will be played in Qatar. This is a country that is in the middle of the desert. As a compromise, Qatari scientists are talking about seeding clouds that will sit over the stadiums to keep fans and players cool so they don’t die of heat exhaustion. Unless James Cameron is a funding member of this venture, it’s pure science fiction. Despite this ludicrous solution to the unbearable heat, FIFA awarded Qatar the World Cup due mostly to bribes, and probably not due to their plan for collapsible, movable stadiums.

UEFA is cut from a very similar cloth. It’s the governing body for European soccer. Think of it as a state house of representatives to the US house of representatives. The European Championships are ongoing and as such there have been a few newsworthy items. There has been fan violence between Polish and Russian supporters as well as bouts of racism. Despite all that horror, it seems UEFA is most concerned with a dude’s underwear. Danish striker Nicklas Bendtner lifted his shirt up part way after scoring a goal to reveal briefs with a “Paddy Power” band. This served as an advertisement/sponsorship of the Irish bookmaker who is not one of Euro 2012′s official sponsors. This means that Bendtner was fined 100,000 Euros, while the Russian FA was fined only a third of that (30,000 Euros) and the Poles were fined a meager 4,000 Euros. Something is clearly out of whack, but since there is no oversight, UEFA can pretty much act as it sees fit.

Sports organizations wield a lot of power due to the vast sums of money they effectively control. With that power, we can only hope the organizations are fair and transparent. It appears the NFL is taking steps towards that, while soccer, as always, becomes more and more opaque.

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April 5th, 2012

Hey Joe Flacco! I Assure You, You’re Not the Best QB in the NFL

by Jeeves

The headline appears to set up a classic example of a straw man argument. One where somebody attacks a position that no one has actually taken. I wouldn’t blame you for assuming that no one asserted that Joe Flacco was the best quarterback in the league, because honestly no one would. I suppose no one should, would be more apt, as Joe Flacco insinuated as much on the radio. His agent is currently trying to negotiate a new contract between Flacco and Ravens, so I don’t blame him for trying to talk his game up. The best thing to do would have been to give a non-answer along the lines of, “I think I’m a good quarterback. How good? Well that isn’t for me to decide. I just try and play my best and lead my team to victory.” That would have been totally fair. I even would have obliged him if he stole a little credit from the defense and answered, “I think my W-L record stands a testament to my value as a QB.” Sure, the Raven’s win despite Flacco, not because of him, but not costing the team games from the QB spot is something worth being rewarded. It could be worse, he could be Jamarcus Russell. Unfortunately for all parties involved, Joe Flacco didn’t go with one of those responses. When questioned whether he believes he’s a top-5 QB as stated by his agent, Flacco responded:

Without a doubt. What do you expect me to say? … I assume everybody thinks they’re a top-five quarterback. I mean, I think I’m the best. I don’t think I’m top five, I think I’m the best. I don’t think I’d be very successful at my job if I didn’t feel that way. I mean, c’mon? That’s not really too tough of a question. But that doesn’t mean that things are gonna work out that way. It just means that that’s the way it is, that’s the way I feel it is, and that’s the way I feel it should be

Now let’s take this step by step:

“Without a doubt”

Really? Joe? Without a doubt? It never crossed your mind that you aren’t Tom Brady good or Drew Brees good? Hell, it’s arguable who would have been a better QB last year; Joe Flacco or Peyton Manning with arm numbness.

“What do you expect me to say?”

See my first paragraph. Namely, don’t comically overstate your abilities as a player.

“I assumed everybody think they’re a top-five quarterback.”

Well you assumed wrong, Joe. There’ s a big difference between self confidence and illusions of grandeur. Visualizing your prize or what you want to happen has been proven to be helpful, but you can’t be so deluded that you lose site of the truth and thus the ability to find what you need to improve to become better.

“I mean, I think I’m the best. I don’t think I’m top five, I think I’m the best.”

Well, you thought wrong. Fact of the matter, no matter how you look at things, Joe, you’re average at best. Let’s take a quick run through some numbers. Out of the 34 QB’s that qualified, Joe ranked 26th in Completion Percentage between Kevin Kolb and Colt McCoy. He actually was two spots behind Rex Grossman of all people. Joe was a bit better when it came to total yards; he was 12th, but that partially due to his health. Ypg-wise, he fell to 19th. (I’ll give him credit, staying healthy is a matter of luck, but it’s not fully luck based so +.5 points to you, Joe). Joe was 13th in TD, 23rd in TD%, 9th in Int%, 23rd in yard per attempts, 18th in passer rating, 82nd in sacks taken, and finally 15th in ESPN’s total QBR stat.

Like I said, a whole lot of average. Take Total QBR and regular passer rating as a quick and dirty analysis. Neither is the best tool on its own, but as I mentioned before, when there’s a correlation between the two ratings, it’s holds, at least, some truth. Both those stats have Flacco firmly in the middle of the pack. There’s nothing wrong with that. It’s hard to find an average quarterback. It’s like pitching in baseball. There’s a dearth of top tier talent, so as long as you have someone that is damaging to your team, it’s okay.

 I don’t think I’d be very successful at my job if I didn’t feel that way.

Irrelevant. I know I’m not the best engineer in the world, and I’m successful. Also, Joe, you’d be better served practicing or studying film that giving inane interviews.

 I mean, c’mon? 

First comment that we’ve shared in common, so far.

That’s not really too tough of a question. 

Wow, my thoughts exactl- oh, you mean, because you think you’re the best, not because you’re clearly not in the top 5, let alone the best overall.

But that doesn’t mean that things are gonna work out that way.

I mean, I guess that comments fine.

It just means that that’s the way it is, 

but it’s not the way it is

that’s the way I feel it is,

Yes, but you’re wrong.

 and that’s the way I feel it should be.

Again, wrong-o.

Look, I played sports. I understand that to perform at your best, you need to be confident in yourself and confident in your abilities. It doesn’t serve anyone well for Joe Flacco to say, “Oh no, I’m not very good.” What he needs to do though, is know his limitations. If you know what you can and can’t do, it will make you better during games and will guide you during practice on what needs to be improved. It appears one of Flacco’s limitations is his ability to give non-hyperbolic interviews. In this case, though, I wouldn’t recommend he work on that. I say focus on improving from an average QB to an above average QB.

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March 28th, 2012

When is Collusion not Collusion? When Roger Goodell Says So

by Jeeves

Roger Goodell really amazes me. He wields such unilateral power, yet goes relatively unchallenged by those affected by said power. Yes, some media types rip him for truly being the Czar of football, but I feel like that backlash is rather muted. Remember the outcry when Stern vetoed the Chris Paul to the Lakers’ trade? He at least had the excuse that the league owned the Hornets. Goodell, on the other hand, decided to have the owners collude against the players’ union and fine the two teams that didn’t fall in line with his collusion.

The facts are as follows: due to the way the NFL CBA was written up, the 2010 season represented an uncapped year. This was down in writing and both the owners and players knew this was inevitable save for a fresh CBA being drawn up (there was no chance this would happen). Rather than try and ratify some sort of agreement with regards to the 2010 season (granted this probably would have forced the owners and players to hammer out a whole new CBA), Roger Goodell handed down a memo from on high declaring that teams can not abuse the uncapped year, lest they face future penalties.

This wasn’t something that was agreed upon by the owners or by the union. Roger Goodell came up with this by his own volition. This represents blatant collusion and the player’s union would have been well within its rights to sue the league after news of this agreement between 30 of the league’s teams, but Goodell was one step ahead. Rather than face litigation, he basically bribed the union. He promised that fines would be levied on the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins, the two teams that took advantage of the uncapped year, and that that money would be distributed as cap space to the other remaining teams. Goodell told the union to accept this during CBA negotiations (and thus forfeit the chance to sue for collusion) or else they wouldn’t see any bonus money.

Had the union tried to fight, the case probably would have been a long, protracted legal battle. Just as they did as a whole, the union bent to Goodell’s will. Just like that, and there’s another feather in Goodell’s cap and a further extension of his power. I truly wonder what the breaking point will be, when there will finally be some push back. There was no push back when Goodell single-handedly ruled on Spygate and then DESTROYED all evidence. There was no push back when he suspended and fined players unfairly (see: Terelle Pryor). There certainly has been no push back on this incident, other than from the Cowboys and Redskins. The other owners voted 30-0 to accept the fines to Dallas and Washington. It’s a rather obvious outcome as it only serves to help them while hurting the other two teams. The Cowboys and Redskins are trying to appeal the decision, but if the past is any indication, Roger Goodell will get his way in the end.

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January 10th, 2012

Leveling the Playing Field: Comparing Drew Brees’ Numbers to Dan Marino’s

by Jeeves

Drew Brees continues his ridiculous run this season by throwing for another 466 yards against the defensively inept Lions. The scary thing about his performance isn’t the sheer magnitude of yards, but rather how ho-hum it seems. Brees, after all, broke Dan Marino’s 28 year old passing yardage record. Looking around the box scores from the entire weekend, there’s an all too familiar pattern. 6 out of the 8 quarterbacks threw for at least 250 yards. Half of those 6 went over 300 yards.

It wasn’t too long ago that a 300 yard game was considered a fantastic performance by a QB. Brett Favre for instance threw for over 300 yards in only about 20% of his games and broke 400 yards only twice in his career. Before he was known for his, ahem, balls, Favre was known for the fantastic numbers he put up; he was league MVP 3 years running from 1995-1997. A mere 15 years later and his numbers are absolutely dwarfed by the current crop of quarterbacks.

We’ll look at Brees again as a point of comparison. This year alone, he has matched Favre’s 400-yard game total (surpassing the total if you include this year’s playoff game). He also threw for over 300 yards in 13/16 regular season games. For crying out loud, he averaged 342 yards a contest. Passing totals are starting to lose significance; it’s becoming increasingly difficult to gauge just how dominant some of these players are.

This goes doubly so when comparing the current day signal callers (other than Peyton, we should probably call them signal receivers) to quarterbacks from earlier years. This is particularly evident when trying to compare Dan Marino to Drew Brees.

When Marino set his record in ’84 the landscape was quite different. Only Neil Lomax (4,614 yards) and Phil Simms (4,044 yards) were able to join Dan above the 4,000 mark. Compare that to this year where there were 9 additional quarterbacks besides Brees to crack 4k (Brady, Stafford, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Romo, Ryan, Roethlisberger, and Newton). In ’84, 13 players total cracked 3,000 yards. This year, 20 players matched that feat (not counting Carson Palmer who with 1 additional start would probably have gotten there despite starting only 9 games).

It’s quite crazy to see things laid out like that. In a way it reminds me of the offensive explosion in baseball following the strike. Suddenly, 30 HRs were no big deal. If you don’t crack 3,000 yards you were either injured or will be, at best, in a competition to retain your starting job. Unfortunately, there is no readily available stat like OPS+ to normalize for park factors (indoor vs outdoor games), competition, era, etc. I eagerly await that day, but in the meantime, we can approximate the affect by comparing Brees and Marino to the league average from their respective years.

In 1984, the average team passed for 3294 yards. In 2011, the average team passed for 3675 yards. So if take Marino’s totals divide by the league average and multiply by 100, we’ll roughly get his PassingYards+ (PY+ for the purposes of this column). For 1984, Marinos PY+ was 154. This year, Brees’ PY+ was 149. Clearly, they both put up phenomenal seasons; they were both roughly 50% better than the league average quarterback, but I believe that Marino’s season was superior to Brees’. Marino better distanced himself from his peers as seen in my PY+ calculation and did all this while playing the majority of his games outdoors. I bring all this up, not to belittle what Drew Brees has accomplished, but rather to try and appreciate Marino’s ’84. As more and more quarterback race past the 5,000 yard mark (Brees, Brady, and Stafford accomplished it this year), it’s important to keep 5,084 in proper context.

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January 4th, 2012

The Value of Peyton Manning More Apparent than Ever

by Jeeves

I wrote at the beginning of the season that despite this year representing a lost season for Peyton Manning, it could, in fact, enhance his reputation and cement his legacy. I wasn’t exactly going out on a limb, but that comment did prove itself to be rather true especially after the latest news out of Indianapolis.

Over the weekend, Jim Irsay bid adieu to vice chairman (and team architect) Bill Polian, as well as his son Chris who served as the team’s general manager. Looking at this solely at face value, it looks as though Irsay overreacted to a 2-14 season. While the Colts’ play was abysmal for the majority of the year, they were by no means historically bad. They showed a lot more moxie down the stretch and distanced themselves from any fears of going 0-16. Couple that with the fact that had gone 9 straight years making the playoffs prior to this year (and 11 years out of 13) and I wouldn’t blame you for wanting to give Team Polian a mulligan on the year.

If you dig a little deeper, you start to realize and appreciate that while the Colts were racking up wins, they were no longer a well oiled machine. The veneer of Peyton Manning made things appear better than they truly were. Gone were the years where the found studs in the draft like James, Freeney, Wayne, Clark and Sanders. Recent picks have fallen flat and have failed to contribute. The lack of talent was evident this year without Peyton to bridge the gaps. The defense was porous and couldn’t stay off the field due to the pure ineptitude of the offense.

I’m not trying to say that Manning, despite his greatness, would have made this Colts’ team a championship contender. They certainly would have been better, but who knows how much better. What it does show, though, is that Manning truly makes his supporting cast better. This is largely the same team that won 10 games and the AFC South last year.

One of the long running refrains in the Brady vs Manning debate was that Manning put up bigger numbers with a stronger supporting cast while Brady put his numbers up with cornerbacks playing as wide receivers. While that is true, I think what we’ve seen from the Colts this year makes it ring a little less true. If Peyton could make this team a 10-game winner a year ago, he certainly was carrying a large load even when Marvin Harrison was in his prime.

In my mind, Peyton is the GOAT. That’s partially due to my age and partially due to my respect for his performance and on-field playcalling. Not everyone will agree with that sentiment, but oddly enough a big statistical zero on his resume this year has probably boosted him in the eyes of football fans everywhere. If you do have your doubts though, just ask the Polian’s how much value Peyton brought to the table.

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November 30th, 2011

Life Ain’t Easy for a Boy Named Suh

by Jeeves

It’s official, Ndamukong Suh has been handed a 2-game suspension. It was what pretty much everybody expected. In case you missed it, the play that ended up drawing the suspension can be seen below:

(I feel like an underplayed part of that incident is how he tried driving Smith’s face into the ground. Everyone is focusing on the stomp, but the pushing of Smith’s head seems more egregious to me.)

In any case, this suspension represents a potential turning point for Suh. Either he takes this suspension to heart and focuses his rage into more productive means (e.g. legally tackling QB’s) or he continues on this same path and becomes an unplayable liability. As it stands, in just his second season of play, he’s already been widely acknowledged by his peers as the dirtiest player in the league and has a catalog of illegal hits to his name (see after the jump). If he doesn’t adjust his play, he will continue to draw penalties, fines, and suspensions which will only hurt and distract his team. Especially, now, with his status as public enemy #1, he needs to watch his step (ohhh, puntastic). Both Goodell and the refs will have their eyes on him whenever he plays.

If I were him, I would spend his two off-Sundays crafting a very sincere (sounding) apology. He appears to be an intelligent guy, yet he has seemingly deluded himself into believing that he has done no wrong. Suh has yet to show any contrition for any of his more violent incidents. I’m not suggesting he needs to get rid of his killer instinct all together, but rather, he needs to realize when he treads past the line from clean play to dirty play. If he can recognize that boundary, we may yet see some great things from him in this league. If he continues as he is, he’ll just become a liability.

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October 25th, 2011

Pump the Brakes on QB Stats

by Jeeves

Aaron Rodgers is absurdly talented. He is destroying the league and currently has both the title belt and the belt for best QB in the league. There isn’t too much to debate on that front. It’s when we get into the historical debates that we all should probably hold our tongues.

There’s no denying that we’re in an absurdly passing-dominant era. QB’s are putting up unheard of numbers. A common refrain is to note that Aaron Rodgers has done thing X, Y number of times which Brett Favre only managed to do twice. When Cam Newton burst onto the scene, his output of 400 yard games was immediately compared to the likes of Elway and Manning. It’s fun to make these comparisons, but it’s not apples to apples. It would be like comparing home run totals from the roidiest part of the 90′s to the Koufax deadball era.

Let’s take a quick look at some passing numbers. So far this year, the average in the NFL is 252.2 ypg passing with a completion percentage of 60.4. Let’s compare that to years past that saw some historical QB play. In 1997, a mere 14 years ago, Brett Favre won the MVP. That year, an average team would pass for 201.8 ypg completing 56% of their passes. Go back a bit farther to say 1992 when Steve Young was the MVP. An average team would expect to complete 57.5% of their passes but only manage 187.6 yards a game. Finally we’ll go all the way back to 1984, Marino’s historic year. The league average was 205.9 yards per game with an average completion percentage of 56.3%.

Clearly, the times have changed. Passing is up over 50 yards a game from a decade ago. Defenders can hardly lay a finger on receivers now. QBs are protected infinitely more than before. Offensive innovations seem to outpace defensive innovations. The list goes on and on. While I appreciate and enjoy this passing oriented version of the NFL, I make sure to take these stats with a heaping helping of salt. If the proper context isn’t applied, suddenly Brett Favre becomes just another QB. Steve Young looks only marginally impressive. If Aaron Rodgers goes on to pass one of Marino’s marks from ’84 (yes I realize some of those numbers have since been surpassed), please, I beg you, put it in context before proclaiming Dan was merely some QB who starred in Ace Ventura

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October 21st, 2011

NFL Picks: Week 7 – Jeeves

by Jeeves

The picks are a bit later in the week this time around. Work was kicking my butt so here is a shorter run through..

In week 3, I was fairly mediocre (as usual). I went 7-9. With my Week 2 performance of 9-5-2 (best so far!) and my 6-8-2 from Week 1, I am 22-22-4. You know, to be honest, I’m pretty okay with .500 so far. Let’s see how things shape up from here on out. Again, the lines I use are the VI Consensus odds.

Chicago (-1) @ Tampa Bay (in London)

This game is really screwy with it being in London (fish chips, cup-oh-tea, bad food, worse weather, Mary Fuckin’ Poppins, London) and all. The winner ultimately will be whomever copes with the travel the best. With a still recovering LaGarrette Blount, my money’s on the Bears. If Chicago has any hope at all of making the playoffs they have to win this game.

Washington (+2.5) @ Carolina

The Redskins are turning the keys over to John Beck. Sex Cannon had a nice little ride but it eventually ended up in a slew of picks. Despite that, I still think the ‘skins take this game. They have been successful this year due to their defense, and last I checked Beck will only be playing on offense. It also helps that Cam Newton is starting to play a little more like a rookie than he was at the start of the year (watch him drop 400 yards just because of the preceding paragraph).

San Diego (-2) @ New York J-E-T-S

This line is interesting because it started as -2.5 with the Jets as the favorites. That means the line has jumped 4.5 points. Normally that would signal you should go the other way, but I have been thoroughly underwhelmed by the Jets this year. On the year they beat the Dolphins by a decent margin, spanked the Jags and eeked out a win courtesy of Tony Romo. In their other games they got wrecked by the Ravens and lost to the Pats. Basically, they are the Chicago Bears. The Chargers are coming off a bye so they should be well rested. They also still are my Super Bowl pick. I’ll admit though, I’ve been thoroughly whelmed by them so far. They have been adequate, and that’s about it.

Seattle (+3) @ Cleveland

The Seahawks haven’t been as bad as advertised. They showed some life in their last three games, beating the Giants and the Cardinals while putting a scare into Atlanta. The Browns meanwhile have been pretty disappointing. I thought they would sneak up on some teams this year, but so far they’ve only managed to show up for games against crap teams. Seattle, I don’t think, is a complete crap team so I’ll take the road team, yet again.

Houston @ Tennessee (-3)

Houston is really banged up, therefore I’ll go with the Titans

The Fighting Tebows (+1) @ Miami

Vegas it seems is not sold on Tebow, because Miami just doesn’t win at home. They’ve only won 1 of their last 12 home games. I’m going with Tebow in his first career start.

Falcons @ Detroit (-3.5)

I hope I’m not jumping on this Detroit bandwagon too heavily. The Lions did lose last week, but apparently the 49ers are good so you can mark them down too much for the loss. I think with a more up to speed Nick Fairley, Matty Ryan gets hurt this game.

Kansas City (+5.5) @ Oakland

This just feels like one of those games where Oakland inexplicably loses to an inferior team. I feel a brain cramp coming on for the Raiders, exacerbated by the arrival of Carson Palmer.

Pittsburgh (-4) @ Arizona

If it wasn’t for the bye week, I’m pretty sure the Cardinals would have gotten whomped last week. Hell, they got wrecked by the Vikes two weeks ago, and their QB was Donovan McNabb. I’m shocked this line isn’t higher.

St. Louis (+13) @ Dallas

The best thing that could happen for St. Louis this year is to go 0-fer and grab the top pick. They then have the enviable position of trading either Luck or Bradford for a bonanza of picks. I don’t think this is likely because I think St. Louis is better than what they’ve shown so far. Also, 13 points is a buttload of points.

Green Bay (-9) @ Minnesota

Green Bay beat the Bears by 10. The Bears beat the Vikes by 29. If I did my math correctly, Green Bay should win 60-0…take the points.

Indianapolis (+14) @ New Orleans

This was set up to be a glamorous match. It was supposed to be a Super Bowl rematch. Instead it’s a huge stinker. I think Indy covers but still loses. Let’s say…New Orleans goes up big, starts resting it’s starters. Indy scores two garbage TD’s to lose by 13.

Baltimore @ Jacksonville (+8)

I thought Baltimore would stink this year. I thought age would catch up to them, but apparently I’ve been wrong. I do, however, think this will be a sloppy game due to the Ravens overlooking Jacksonville a bit.

 

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October 19th, 2011

In Memory of Al Davis, Raiders Waste 1st Round Picks Like He Was Still in Charge

by Jeeves

Just win, baby!

More than the skeletor look, more than the black and silver, Davis is probably best remembered for his mantra, “Just win, baby!” It’s an axiom that he stuck to quite well during the Madden years when the Raiders were continuously a team to be reckoned with. As we all know, the last few years weren’t so kind to Davis or to the Raiders. “Just win, baby!” turned into “Trade as many future draft picks as possible, baby!” It’s why the team won’t be picking until the 5th round next year. Some of the trades, like nabbing Richard Seymour seemed to work out. Unfortunately, I don’t think the Raiders latest coup will bring back the returns the team was looking for.

According to Jay Glazer, the Raiders traded for Carson Palmer. In exchange, they are sending the Bengals a 1st round pick in 2012 and a conditional pick in 2013. That conditional pick, depending on how Palmer plays could end up being ANOTHER 1st rounder. Let’s compare this to another recent QB trade. Back in ’09, the Bears traded what amounted to Kyle Orton and 2 1st-rounders for Jay Cutler. At the time, people thought the Bears had overpaid. Cutler was young and coming off a 4,457 yard year, so it’s not as though the Bears were getting garbage.

Palmer, on the other hand, is no spring chicken. He will be 32 in December and hasn’t seen the field this entire season since he decided to take his ball and go home for the summer. He’s also 4 years removed from his last good season. This doesn’t bode well for the Raiders. I really question whether a rusty Palmer (no, not a sexual position…that I know of) is really that much of an improvement over Kyle Boller and two 1st-round picks. I realize the Raiders are desperate to snatch up a playoff berth, but they clearly overpaid. I imagine Cincy would have been happy merely getting a single 1st round pick, let alone 2. The Eagles couldn’t even land one for Kevin Kolb. The record on the season now shows that the Raiders have traded a first rounder (Palmer), a third rounder (Terelle Pryor), and a fourth rounder (Jason Campbell) for QB’s this year. If the team doesn’t make it to the playoffs, well, there’s always that 2014 1st rounder that they can trade.

(Aside: The other big winner besides Cincy is whomever lands the 1st pick in the draft. If Palmer is worth potentially 2 firsts, then how much would Andrew Luck be worth if say the QB-set Rams grab the 1st pick?)

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October 18th, 2011

The Impossibility of Dealing with Devin Hester – Why Peter King is Wrong

by Jeeves

Over the weekend, Devin Hester did what he does best. Take a kick back to the house. If you missed it, his latest exploits can be seen below:

 

This kick return represented his 16th overall return TD and yet another opportunity for me to watch him in wonderment. Hester simply has no historical equal. There have been players like Dante Hall who for a small period of time struck fear into the hearts’ of opposing fans and special teams’ coaches alike, but his brilliance was limited to a scant three years. Outside of that 3 year peak, Hall was an average returner at best.

Hester has now been a return stud for 6 years. He did have a 2-year sojourn as he transitioned into the WR position, where he didn’t take one to the house. Those 2 years also represented the peak of the don’t.kick.to.Hester era. Despite his struggles, Hester still maintained an air of unpredictability. He seemed fully capable of scoring anytime he received a kick and it appeared to be a mere matter of time before Hester struck paydirt. Hester tallied 3 PR for TD last year and is well on his way this year with 1 PR and 1 KR for TD. These last 2 years only further confirmed that Hester’s incomparable first 2 years were no fluke.

With his renewed success, the familiar cries of “You cannot under any circumstance kick to Devin Hester” have started popping up again. Peter King even went so far as to say

I think I have graduated from the Tony Dungy School of Never Kick to Devin Hester. Ready for my graduate courses.

At face value, this seems like a smart comment to make, albeit done so in pompous, name-dropping way. If you dig a little deeper and really think about it, though, it really is more inane than it is intelligent.

Let’s think of it this way. If (we’ll take kick returns) you accept that you cannot under any circumstance kick to Devin Hester, your options are to do one of the following:

  1. Kick it out of the endzone
  2. Kick it out of bounds
  3. Squib kick
  4. Onside kick

There is only one attractive option there (obviously number 1). Despite the new kick off rules, unless you have Sebastian Janikowski, you’re not going to be guaranteed a touchback. Hell, even with a little bit of a breeze, Janikowski is no given. So number 2, is the next on the list. Kicking the ball out of bounds leads to a penalty, which would bring the ball up to the 40 yard line automatically; that’s a stiff, stiff penalty. It’s certainly a better option than giving up a touchdown, but how often is Hester really going to bring one back? Yes, he is the stuff of legends, but he only has 5 kick off returns for TD (6 if you want to include the Super Bowl). For his career, he’s averaged 24.5 yards per kick off return. No matter how terrified you are of Hester, there’s no logical way to justify handing the Bears’ that extra 15.5 yards by kicking the ball out of bounds. Squib kicks and onside kicks offer similar options. Sacrifice massive field position in order to take the ball out of Hester’s hands.

I’ll admit keeping the ball away from Hester on punts is an easier feat than on kicks, but it doesn’t mean that it is an altogether asy task. There’s only maybe 2 seconds for the punter to catch the ball, line up the laces, take his steps, plant, aim, and kick. The tiniest of errors in placement of foot on ball can lead to a 20 yard shank job. I’m not trying to throw a pity party for punters, but rather illustrate that coffin cornering Hester is no walk in the park.

Devin Hester provides a unique challenge in the NFL. Some staffs, like the Denver Broncos (how awesome was that, by the way), choose to challenge Hester. Others run scared and cede field position. If execution is lacking, Hester represents a lose-lose proposition for the opposition, but if a team runs their special teams’ package as planned, well, Hester is just another extremely fast player. Perhaps when Peter is done with his graduate course, he’ll stop by and takes Jeeves’ doctoral course, “Kick carefully to Devin Hester while maintaining your tackling lanes.”

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